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Every poker player has a
horror story concerning pairs. Online forums
abound with tales of players holding pocket
Kings being knocked out of a tournament by
someone holding 6-3os. Indeed, there are
some wizened poker veterans who will tell
you they have been burned so many times by
bad beats that they now approach a pair
pre-flop with extreme caution.
But experience isn't
always the best guide - indeed, looking at
the mathematical probabilities paints a
different picture. The key is to raise
aggressively pre-flop so you're quickly
faced with something resembling a heads-up
situation. From that point, comparing the
relative strength of holding pairs before
the flop against a number of alternative
hands is easier to assess and allows us to
develop some golden rules to follow. You'll
find out top three set out below in no
particular order.
Golden Rule 1
If you have reason to
believe you have been dealt a bigger pair
than your opponent, then you're a big
favourite, while the suspicion that your
opponent holds the bigger pair make you
(surprise, surprise) the big underdog.
Pocket rockets (A-A)
are simply the best pre-flop hand in the
deck, and should be played with all the
strength you can muster. This is the time to
push out potential rivals by raising
immediately and, if you are raised, to
re-raise. That done the key question then
remains- what exactly are your chances of
winning heads-up against any individual pair
of cards facing you? The answer is, on the
face of it, a little surprising.
To illustrate, let us
consider the strength of a pair of Aces
against a pair of every other rank from
kings down to 2s. Box 1, compares odds for
each hand where both pairs are of the same
suit, of totally different suits, and with
one common suit. The box includes the
probability of winning with each pair in a
heads-up situation and also the likelihood
of a tie.
BIGGER PAIRS VS SMALLER PAIRS (BOX 1)
| |
Same Suits |
|
Different Suits |
|
One Common Suit |
|
| |
Win |
Tie |
Win |
Tie |
Win |
Tie |
| A-A vs K-K |
82.6 |
0.54 |
81.3 |
0.38 |
81.9 |
0.46 |
| A-A vs Q-Q |
82.2 |
0.52 |
80.9 |
0.35 |
81.5 |
0.43 |
| A-A vs J-J |
81.8 |
0.49 |
80.5 |
0.33 |
81.1 |
0.41 |
| A-A vs 10-10 |
81.4 |
0.46 |
80.1 |
0.30 |
80.7 |
0.38 |
| A-A vs 9-9 |
81.5 |
0.44 |
80.2 |
0.28 |
80.9 |
0.36 |
| A-A vs 8-8 |
81.1 |
0.42 |
79.8 |
0.26 |
80.5 |
0.34 |
| A-A vs 7-7 |
81.1 |
0.42 |
79.8 |
0.26 |
80.5 |
0.34 |
| A-A vs 6-6 |
81.1 |
0.44 |
79.8 |
0.29 |
80.5 |
0.37 |
| A-A vs 5-5 |
81.6 |
0.49 |
80.2 |
0.34 |
80.9 |
0.45 |
| A-A vs 4-4 |
82.0 |
0.52 |
80.7 |
0.38 |
81.3 |
0.45 |
| A-A vs 3-3 |
82.4 |
0.54 |
81.1 |
0.43 |
81.8 |
0.49 |
| A-A vs 2-2 |
82.9 |
0.57 |
81.5 |
0.50 |
82.2 |
0.54 |
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