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TIPS FROM THE PROS
Perry Friedman
October 17, 2005
You are in the big blind with Ts-8s
against a player who smooth-called pre-flop.
The flop comes K-X-X with two spades. What
do you do?
You would like to make your flush, and
you don't want to pay too much to get there.
Instinctively, you think checking is the
best way to get a free card, and you're
right.
In fact, checking is the only way to get
a free card, but it may not give you the
best opportunity to make your hand, nor will
it pay you maximum value when you make the
flush.
Suppose your opponent bets the pot. Now
you're getting 2-1 to call for a 4-1 chance
of making your hand. You don't even get to
see the turn card. You've been priced out.
What happens if you lead out with a small
bet? If you're against a player who likes to
slow play or a player who will bluff you out
with a big bet, a small bet gives you the
best chance of seeing the turn.
How small is a small bet? Try betting
between 1/3 and 1/4 of the pot. If there is
$300 in the pot and you bet $100, you are
now getting the right price to make your
flush. If you bet $75, you are now getting
better than pot odds, and this doesn't
account for your implied odds, which take
into account the amount of money your
opponent will bet or call on the turn and
river. If you make your flush on the turn,
and your opponent is willing to call your
$400 bet, you are getting implied odds of
$300 (current pot size on the flop) + $400
(expected amount your opponent will call on
the turn) = $700 to $100 (your bet on the
flop), or 7-1.
This is an even better play when your
drawing hand is less obvious. Suppose the
flop is Q-9-6. Now you are drawing to the
double gut shot straight, where a 7 or a J
makes your hand. While an 8 or a K is an
obvious scare card, a 7 looks like a card
unlikely to have helped anyone. (The risk
factor here is that the J might give you the
"idiot end" of the straight
against an opponent holding K-J, and your
1/4 pot bet is exactly the right price for
him to call.)
In a tournament, this type of drawing
strategy can become a riskier and less
profitable play, especially early on.
Because you start with a limited number of
chips in tournament play, your odds need to
be closer to 5-1 or even 6-1 before you
should consider risking them on a draw, and
potentially leaving yourself short stacked.
The important thing when drawing is to be
the aggressor. Losing initiative leaves you
vulnerable to being priced out of the pot,
whether it's by a made hand or a bluff. If
you want to see another card at the right
price, your best bet is to be the bettor.
Perry Friedman |
