|
 |
| |
 |
 |
Bluffing Odds: Using Odds during a
Bluff |
|
| |
|
Poker
is all about Maths and that even applies to
bluffing. It is possible to calculate
percentages that tell you if it is an
excellent time to bluff in financial terms.
This is crucial when there are only one or
two players and there is a very large pot.
|
| |
|
The
best use of these calculations is if you’ve
gone for potential straights or flushes that
appeared on the river, but that didn’t
materialise. Lets say the flop was Club,
Club, Spade, and the next two cards were
both Spades. You had two low Clubs. If you
and your opponent show your hands it is
inevitable that you will lose, however how
likely is it that your opponent will fold if
you raise? Or put another way how likely is
it that your opponent doesn’t have the
nuts?
|
| |
|
Let's
say that the above case occurred in a
$10/$20 game and on the river there is $400
in the pot. Your only opponent checks to
you. If you check, you know you've lost. So
you bluff. The reasoning is that if you
invest another $20, you're getting 20 to 1
odds. As a percent that's around 5%. If they
fold more than 5% of the time when you do
this, you make money in the long run, and it
really is the long run which you should be
thinking.
|
| |
Obviously you still have
to use judgement and evaluate your opponent,
but from a purely mathematical perspective
hopefully you understand. Another way of
looking at it is that they missed their draw
more than 5% of the time and will fold.
|
| |
|
If two players are
involved in the pot, the odds half. With
three, it becomes 1/3rd of 5%. You can
hopefully see why it is best to bluff
against as low a number of players as
possible.
The caveat to place on
this is that some players will stay in
purely based on Pot Odds
. So bluffing can
never be just about odds. You need to
understand the mindset of your opponents.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|