100 Up!! |
Well, I finally managed
to win my 100th live multi-table poker
competition. Of course, being the strange
breed that the poker gods are, they
dictated that it would be my biggest ever
win to date, and that it would be exactly
?100,000. I struggled past 135 players
over two long days of poker to win the
Victoria Classic at the Victoria Grosvenor
Casino on London's Edgware Road.
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I was in the small
blind 400. The big blind was 800 and there
was a nominal running ante. The first
player to act, smooth called. In most
cases this tells us nothing about this
player's hand. Most players will smooth
call in this position with big hands like
Kings and Aces, hoping that a later player
will raise, so that they can then put a
very large re-raise in. But the player may
also, of course, just have JQ of hearts or
many other inferior hands.
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The next player to act
folded, and then Frode, a top Norwegian
player, also smooth called. It transpires,
he was wary of the early caller, and
fancied him for a big hand. Now, all of a
sudden there was a larger than usual pot
developing. So two players in late
position also called. They were basically
getting very good value for their mediocre
hands, so why not?
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When the action reached
me, I looked down at KQ off-suit.
Fortunately, the player to my left was
paying very little attention and didn't
look like he had a hand. So I thought the
time was right for a semi-steal. There was
4600 chips in the middle. Well worth the
effort when the average chip stack was
less than 20,000. But try to bluff when
there are 4 callers?
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It's not as difficult
as you might think, if we look at the
information available. The big blind
player has switched off. Frode and the two
late callers have already given their type
of hands away. If they had a big hand they
would almost certainly have raised to try
and take the chips that were out there.
This is because the early limper had
created the extra value. Generally, if
there are more than the BB and SB out
there, then its best to raise your good
hands and just take the available chips
uncontested without any danger to your
stack. Also if you have a big hand, you
are better playing it heads up. So the
late callers just can't have a big hand
unless they are looking for trouble.
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Fortunately, I had been
on an earlier table with the first
position limper for several hours. I had
noticed that he loved to raise at every
opportunity, and that he liked to play
more hands than most. So I thought there
was a good chance he wouldn't call. So I
raised 5000, thinking that I had a 80%
chance of picking up the pot there and
then, uncontested.
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The big blind and early
limper passed as expected, but Frode thought
for a second, and then moved all-in. His
re-raise was my 5000 with another 7400 on
top. The late players passed as expected,
and I had to contemplate his raise. The pot
odds on calling were excellent. I was
risking 7400 to win 22,400. |
The big problem was that if
I lost, a further 7400 would leave me with
only 5000 chips. At the start of the hand, I
had a comfortable chip stack. At the end, I
may be in big trouble needing to go all-in
during the next 2 rounds. So I looked at
this problem from two more points of view :
what type of hand am I in big trouble
against, and what type of hand has Frode
got. |
- There are actually only five hands
that would have put me in a very awkward
spot : AA, KK, QQ, AK or AQ. All of
these would give me less than a 20%
chance of winning the pot, and would
constitute a horrendous call. Against AJ
or similar, I would be an underdog but
still win 42% of the time. Against any
pair from JJ down, I would be a lesser
underdog, winning 47% of the time.
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- A lot of players in this situation
would assume Frode had Aces or Kings,
but I thought it was unlikely. Once
there had been an early limper, I was
sure Frode would have raised with any
pair from 10s up, trying to create a
heads up pot. I was sure Frode would not
have re-raised me with suited connectors
or AJ for that matter either. So all the
indicators were that Frode had been
limping with a pair. Again, I am sure
Frode would consider it too risky to
re-raise with lower pairs, 2s to 6s. So
he must have one of three hands : 7s, 8s
or 9s.
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I was sure that I was just a
47% underdog. The Pot Odds
dictated it was a
call. I could possibly recover if I lost the
pot. You don't win tournaments without
playing big pots, and you certainly don't
win tournaments without getting lucky! My
chips went in, and as you can guess, I hit a
King. Frode was out, and I was in a very
good position to proceed into the second
day. |
The point I am trying to
make though, was that if Frode had not
called, it would have been an excellent move
stealing a large amount of chips
uncontested. The type of move that helps you
survive the long barren spells when you
don't pick up any nice hands. As it worked
out? I just got lucky! |